Book review: The Premonition

I've avoided reading any books about the pandemic up until now. Truth be told, like most people I did far too much doomscrolling during the pandemic lockdowns, and I wasn't in the mood to re-traumatise myself by reading an account of what we all went through. However, I have seen several people recommend Michael Lewis' The Premonition, so I worked up the courage to crack it open last week. And I'm glad I did.

Lewis' narrative style is engaging, and he makes the characters come alive. Lewis highlights the stories of a number of under-recognised people in the US efforts against the coronavirus pandemic. However, the underlying story is the general incompetence of 'the government', rather than necessarily the people involved in the pandemic response. For instance, at the start of Chapter Four, Lewis writes:

One day some historian will look back and say how remarkable it was that these strange folk who called themselves "Americans" ever governed themselves at all, given how they went about it. Inside the United States government were all these little boxes. The boxes had been created to address specific problems as they arose. "How to ensure our good is safe to ear," for instance, or "how to avoid a run on the banks," or "how to prevent another terrorist attack." Each box was given to people with knowledge and talent and expertise useful to its assigned problem, and, over time, those people created a culture around the problem, distinct from the cultures in the other little boxes. Each box became its own small, frozen world, with little ability to adapt and little interest in whatever might be going on inside the other boxes... One box might contain the solution to a problem in another box, or the person who might find that solution, and that second box would never know about it.

The book is centred on the American response, with precious little reference to other countries. For instance, the American response was certainly a contrast to New Zealand's 'go hard and go early' approach. What this book demonstrates is just how dangerous the game of wait-and-see is, when a crisis is unfolding. As Lewis writes:

By the time people realized that their house was on fire, they needed more than a fire extinguisher.

Despite my initial caution, I really enjoyed this book. It has convinced me that I should really read more of Michael Lewis' books. In this one, the central characters are not those that you may expect before reading. Reading this book is a bit like watching a train crash unfold in slow motion. Fortunately (or unfortunately), we know what the ending is. Lewis does a great job of keeping it interesting along the way. Highly recommended!