I've written a number of posts about rational crime, including onion theft, honey theft, and avocado theft. Here's some of what I wrote in the first of those posts:
Rational decision-makers (including criminals) weigh up the costs and benefits of an action, and will take the action which offers the greatest net benefits. That doesn't mean that every decision-maker is a calculating machine, but at least we can usually say that if the costs or benefits of an action change, then people may make different decisions. In other words, economists recognise that people (including criminals) respond to incentives.
So, when the price of onions increases, we might expect to see more onion thefts. Why? The benefits of onion theft have increased, while the costs (in terms of the risk of punishment) probably haven't much changed. We can describe two mechanisms for why this would increase onion thefts. First, career vegetable burglars (or maybe just the generally criminally-inclined) recognise that there are larger profits to be had by stealing onions for resale. So, they steal more onions (or maybe they start stealing onions). Second, ordinary people now face higher costs of purchasing onions. So, perhaps stealing onions becomes a lower cost alternative for them, so they steal rather than purchase. Either way, increases in onion theft.
In each of those cases (onions, honey, and avocados), an increase in the value of the good raised the benefits of theft, and incentivised more theft. The latest example of this phenomenon follows that same pattern, as described in this article from BBC News:
Thieves are making a fortune from stealing used cardboard that's been left out to be recycled, and selling it on. This means that legitimate recycling firms, and the city and other local authorities who take a cut from their sales, are missing out on tens of millions...
While figures are not available for how much recycled cardboard is stolen globally, experts say it is very much a worldwide problem. And there are vast amounts of money to be made.
The annual value of the legitimate trade in recycled cardboard and other papers is expected to climb to $5.4bn (£4.1bn) by 2024, up from $4.3bn in 2017. This increase is not surprising when you consider the continuing rise in online shopping, and the fact that most consumer goods are delivered to you in cardboard boxes that are made from recycled fibre (said to be 93% recycled for boxes in Europe)...
Like any commodity, the price of recycled cardboard ebbs and flows according to global demand. Simon Ellin, chief executive of UK trade body The Recycling Association, says the current price is between £70 and £80 per tonne.
"But at the start of coronavirus it spiked to £130. Getting hold of cardboard was a bit 'name your price' at the time, because with everyone stuck at home there was a big rise in online sales," he says.
The higher price of cardboard creates an incentive for the theft of cardboard. However, the reaction of the 'victims' of this theft is different from the other examples I noted above:
But does the problem exist in the UK? Mark Hall from recycling firm BusinessWaste.co.uk says he "wouldn't be surprised".
"The problem is that recycled cardboard is so untraceable," he says. "It is not as if it has a tracker on it.
"And theft is hardly ever reported by companies, because why would they? If magic pixies have nicked their waste cardboard then it means they don't have to pay a firm like mine to come and pick it up. So they are going to keep schtum [quiet]."
This is very much the opinion of the shopkeeper we spoke to in Madrid.
The thieves benefit from the stolen cardboard, since they can on-sell it at a profit. However, it seems that the companies whose cardboard recycling is stolen also benefit (because they don't have to pay for the recycling collection). In that case, does this even count as a crime?
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