Hamilton residents could find themselves living in two completely new electorates under a bold new proposal to completely redraw the city's political landscape.
The existing Hamilton East and Hamilton West electorates would be scrapped and replaced with two new Hamilton North and Hamilton South electorates, if the suggestion by political pundit and former Green party candidate Mark Servian is adopted by the Representation Commission.
Servian reckons electoral boundaries based on Hamilton's northern and southern halves would better reflect the city's diverse and changing population and its "communities of interest"...
Michael Cameron, an associate professor in economics at Waikato University said the Servian proposal was "probably a non-starter" because it potentially clashed with the commission's objectives of having an equal number of electors in each electorate.
The demographics of each electorate were not a factor the organisation took into consideration. However topographical features were - and the river was a prominent and natural dividing line.
"The other thing the commission doesn't want to do is create any unnecessary confusion. Everyone in Hamilton would effectively be in a new electorate under this proposal, so it would probably not be acceptable to them on that basis."
Cameron said it was difficult to declare whether diverse or homogenous electorates were better.
"That's something for the commission to ponder, and that's why we have them to make those sort of decisions.
"We definitely don't want to end up in a situation where the politicians get to decide their own boundaries, like they do in the United States."This is not the first time I've been asked to comment on electoral boundaries recently (see my earlier post here).
The Representation Commission makes decisions on New Zealand's electoral boundaries. You can read their 2019/20 report here. It recommends only one change relevant to Hamilton, which is to move the area around Horsham Downs from the Hamilton West electorate to the Waikato electorate. The Hamilton East electorate would remain unchanged.
I described the change to Hamilton North and Hamilton South as a non-starter, for two reasons. First, it would mean that every person in Hamilton would be in a new electorate. The Representation Commission is required to give consideration to "existing electorate boundaries", and in their report they say that:
Where possible, we have retained the existing electorate boundaries and names which are familiar to the public.Clearly, reducing confusion for the public weighs into their considerations.
Second, the Commission is required to give consideration to "topographical features", and when it comes to Hamilton, the main topographical feature is the river, which neatly divides the city into East and West.
Other than total population (current and projected future), the Commission does not take into account demographic considerations. And it isn't clear to me that the result (in terms of representation) would be any better if they did. Do we really want socio-demographically homogeneous electorates, or electorates that are diverse? That's not a question I feel equipped to answer, and many people's answer would depend on their ideological preferences. And that's why we have an independent commission to make these decisions.
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Given MMP, the diversity vs homogenous difference probably doesn't matter all that much. But I agree an independent commission is best placed to decide. Personally, I think it should relate more to the services used than to demographics.
ReplyDeleteThe question is what happens when Hamilton needs a third electorate? - I suspect this will be a carve off of the north taking in a bit of both east and west.
I think we're still a way off having a third Hamilton electorate, unless they pulled in Cambridge or Te Awamutu (or both).
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